Being a mathematically inclined guy who likes to make smart bets, I put some money down on Lord of the Rings this week (at 1:1 odds!) with another trader. This guy clearly was off market, as I found at least 8 online sites that had the odds at 6:1 or worse!
Having made one off-market bet, I thought to myself... there could be some more easy money in this. In additional to finding easy marks swayed by emotions (loving or hating a film/actor) I need to do more statistical analysis on past winners. (Yeah, yeah: past performance is no guarantee of future returns. Whatever.) But luckily, somone else has already done it for me.
Handicapping the Oscars puts the winners as:
Best Picture: Lord of the Rings
Best Actor: Sean Penn and Bill Murray (statistical tie)
Best Actress: Charlize Theron
Best Supporting Actor: Ken Watanabe
Best Supporting Actress: Shohreh Aghdashloo and Patricia Clarkson (statistical tie)
Best Director: Peter Jackson
Best Screenplay: Sofia Coppola
Wicked Banker's predictions would be:
Best Picture: Lord of the Rings
Best Actor: Sean Penn
Best Actress: Charlize Theron
Best Supporting Actor: Tim Robbins
Best Supporting Actress: Renee Zellweger
Best Director: Peter Jackson
Best Screenplay: Sofia Coppola
We'll see what happens
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